Mesoscale Discussion 0688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...parts of wrn TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050340Z - 050545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated intense cell may persist south/southeast of Midland perhaps another hour or so, before dissipating. DISCUSSION...One isolated intense cell, which impacted the Wink TX vicinity a couple of hours ago with severe hail and a localized gusts in excess of 65 kt, has been maintained. It appears that this has been supported by lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, as it propagates along a thermal gradient around the 700 mb level. Based on a NAM-based objective analysis, there may be a narrow corridor of (relatively) better instability along this track, but strong shear may be the more prominent factor (aided by low-level easterlies veering to 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow around 500) in maintaining this cell. Even so, the stronger convection has shown some recent contraction in size and decrease in intensity. Based on the objective instability analysis, and latest surface observations, there appears increasing potential for it to begin a more rapid dissipation by the time it reaches the Glasscock/Reagan counties vicinity around 05Z, if not earlier. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 31750196 31720164 31580150 31480167 31590208 31750196 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards