Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 689

   Mesoscale Discussion 0689
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0846 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025

   Areas affected...parts of south-central to southeast TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051346Z - 051545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will be possible this morning with
   elevated storms moving northeast from the San Antonio vicinity.
   Overall coverage/intensity will probably remain insufficient for
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed along a
   northwest/southeast-oriented corridor to the south-southeast of San
   Antonio. This activity initially pulsed up and then weakened, but
   could oscillate back upward this morning. Guidance consensus
   indicates this activity has formed along the leading edge of
   strengthening 700-mb southwesterlies, which will move northeastward
   through midday. 12Z Del Rio and Corpus Christi soundings sampled
   rich low-level moisture with steepened lapse rates above 650 mb.
   With some veering but mainly increasing speed shear with height,
   transient mid-level rotation will remain possible. Overall scenario
   could support sporadic severe hail cores into midday, but coverage
   should remain isolated.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29059845 29599874 30159848 30669739 30769676 30639621
               30319576 29809556 29279555 28969618 28629707 28679774
               29059845 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN