{"id":197680,"date":"2025-04-01T03:59:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T08:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/2025\/04\/01\/storm-prediction-center-apr-1-2025-day-4-8-severe-weather-outlook\/"},"modified":"2025-04-01T04:30:05","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T09:30:05","slug":"storm-prediction-center-apr-1-2025-day-4-8-severe-weather-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/2025\/04\/01\/storm-prediction-center-apr-1-2025-day-4-8-severe-weather-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Storm Prediction Center Apr 1, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 1, 2025<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Updated:\u00a0Tue Apr 1 08:59:02 UTC 2025<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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D4<\/td>\nFri, Apr 04, 2025 – Sat, Apr 05, 2025<\/td>\nD7<\/td>\nMon, Apr 07, 2025 – Tue, Apr 08, 2025<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
D5<\/td>\nSat, Apr 05, 2025 – Sun, Apr 06, 2025<\/td>\nD8<\/td>\nTue, Apr 08, 2025 – Wed, Apr 09, 2025<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
D6<\/td>\nSun, Apr 06, 2025 – Mon, Apr 07, 2025<\/td>\n(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\n Note:<\/span> A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW<\/b> is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and\/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n POTENTIAL TOO LOW<\/b> means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\n\n   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL\n   ACUS48 KWNS 010857\n   SPC AC 010857\n\n   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  \n   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK\n   0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025\n\n   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z\n\n   ...DISCUSSION...\n   Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi\n   stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and\n   eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast\n   period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression\n   of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some\n   key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate\n   potential in the coming days.\n\n   ...Day4\/Friday...\n   The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually\n   deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern\n   Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the\n   southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South\n   and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside\n   along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH\n   Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible\n   within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large\n   buoyancy\/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to\n   multiple preceding days of convective potential.\n\n   ...Day5\/Saturday...\n   The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern\n   Mexico, eventually reaching the lower\/middle MS Valley D5\/Saturday.\n   Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the\n   warm sector owing to differences in the timing\/structure of the\n   ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level\n   flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and\n   Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually\n   intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential\n   ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to\n   ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible\n   from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into\n   Saturday night.\n\n   ...Day6-8...\n   The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper\n   trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some\n   severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast\/eastern US with\n   seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences\n   on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of\n   proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond\n   Day 5.\n\n   ..Lyons.. 04\/01\/2025\n\n   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48<\/a> PRODUCT\n\n<\/pre>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 1, 2025 Updated:\u00a0Tue Apr 1 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":174074,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4478],"tags":[4722,4615,4623,4624,4614,4633,4613,4625],"class_list":["post-197680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-watches-warnings-advisories-hazards","tag-apr","tag-center","tag-day","tag-outlook","tag-prediction","tag-severe","tag-storm","tag-weather"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=197680"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197680\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":197681,"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197680\/revisions\/197681"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/174074"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=197680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=197680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=197680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}