{"id":195867,"date":"2025-03-17T02:38:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T07:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/2025\/03\/17\/mar-17-2025-day-2-fire-weather-outlook\/"},"modified":"2025-03-17T05:00:12","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T10:00:12","slug":"mar-17-2025-day-2-fire-weather-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/narcolepticnerd.com\/2025\/03\/17\/mar-17-2025-day-2-fire-weather-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Mar 17, 2025 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Mar 17, 2025 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Updated:\u00a0Mon Mar 17 07:38:03 UTC 2025\u00a0(Print Version<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0\"20250317<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0\"20250317<\/a>)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Risk<\/span><\/span><\/td>\nArea\u00a0(sq.\u00a0mi.)<\/span><\/span><\/td>\nArea\u00a0Pop.<\/span><\/span><\/td>\nSome\u00a0Larger\u00a0Population\u00a0Centers\u00a0in\u00a0Risk\u00a0Area<\/span><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Extreme<\/span><\/td>\n49,890<\/span><\/td>\n1,247,022<\/span><\/td>\nLubbock, TX…Amarillo, TX…Midland, TX…Odessa, TX…Clovis, NM…<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Critical<\/span><\/td>\n196,921<\/span><\/td>\n3,847,829<\/span><\/td>\nEl Paso, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Norman, OK…Wichita Falls, TX…Lawton, OK…<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\n   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL\n   FNUS22 KWNS 170737\n\n   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  \n   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK\n   0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025\n\n   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z\n\n   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO\n   INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...\n   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...\n\n   ...Synopsis...\n   Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday\n   afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread\n   critical\/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains.\n\n   Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough\n   off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over\n   the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern\/central Plains by late\n   Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated\n   across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure\n   values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well\n   below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for\n   mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a\n   wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward\n   advancing dryline across TX\/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low\n   across central TX\/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late\n   afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the\n   dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. \n\n   The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold\n   front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements\n   off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of\n   sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the\n   Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX\n   Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of\n   the low-level front\/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between\n   50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and\n   critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an\n   Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. \n\n   Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of\n   the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely\n   critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far\n   southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on\n   drier\/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits\n   confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions\n   may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far\n   east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of\n   moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude\n   of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25\n   mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next\n   24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range\n   guidance.\n\n   ..Moore.. 03\/17\/2025\n\n   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov\/fire for graphic product...\n\n   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)<\/a>\n      <\/pre>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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