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\n\n Mesoscale Discussion 0171\n NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK\n 0340 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025\n\n Areas affected...parts of northwestern and north central Arkansas\n into central Missouri\n\n Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely \n\n Valid 142040Z - 142245Z\n\n Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent\n\n SUMMARY...Further intensification of a broken squall line with\n embedded supercells appears likely into the 6-7 PM CDT time frame,\n accompanied by increasing risk for very strong, damaging surface\n gusts and\/or a few tornadoes.\n\n DISCUSSION...Surface dew points have mixed into the 30s F across\n much of central Missouri, between the I-44 and I-70 corridors. \n However, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that the nose of a plume\n of precipitable water on the order of .75-1.00+ inches is now nosing\n across central Arkansas toward the southern Missouri state border\n vicinity, where a notable recent increase in surface dew points is\n underway. This includes surface dew points in the lower\/mid 50s F,\n which Rapid Refresh forecast soundings have been indicating rapidly\n return northward, just ahead of the approaching squall line into\n early evening.\n\n Although the same forecast soundings suggest that this may tend to\n coincide with the transition to a more linear low-level hodograph,\n low-level shear is forecast to remain strong to extreme beneath 850\n flow strengthening to 50+ kt. This environment may still become\n increasingly conducive to supercells with potential to produce\n tornadoes and\/or very strong, damaging gusts, in addition to large\n hail.\n\n ..Kerr\/Gleason.. 03\/14\/2025\n\n ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...\n\n ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...\n\n LAT...LON 39179241 38549186 37709199 35589331 35219431 37549364\n 38329340 39129293 39179241 \n\n<\/pre>\n<\/td><\/div>\n