Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 932

   Mesoscale Discussion 0932
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221924Z - 222130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development,
   perhaps including an evolving supercell or two, appears possible
   through 3-5 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for large hail and locally
   damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and deep-boundary layer mixing focused
   along the dryline across the Texas South Plains is contributing to
   weakening inhibition as far north as a diffuse surface front
   extending near/south of Childress toward the Lubbock vicinity.  This
   is coinciding with deepening convective development, which seems
   likely to persist, particularly where low-level convergence is
   strongest near the boundary intersection.

   Although beneath more modest northwesterly mid-level flow/deep-layer
   shear than closer to the Red River, as updrafts acquire increasing
   inflow of air characterized by mixed-layer CAPE as high as 2000-3000
   J/kg, isolated supercell development posing a risk for large hail
   and damaging wind gusts appear possible.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32840099 33290179 33730170 34330120 34080030 33969958
               32840099 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN