Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 90

   Mesoscale Discussion 0090
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into central Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172340Z - 180015Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe gusts are possible with
   high-based storms this evening and perhaps early tonight.

   DISCUSSION...A mid-level impulse, embedded in broader upper
   troughing, is overspreading the central Plains, resulting in the
   gradual deepening of a surface low over eastern NE. Preceding
   southerly flow just above the surface continues to increase in
   magnitude, and RAP forecast soundings depict over 50 kts of 925 mb
   flow, which is poised to overspread far eastern NE into central IA
   as the low-level jet intensifies. A shield of high-based/low-topped
   convection is approaching from the west, and will overspread a dry
   boundary layer over the next few hours. Some of the stronger virga
   showers/possible thunderstorms will promote enough evaporative
   cooling for downward momentum transport of the stronger flow just
   above the surface, likely resulting in gusty conditions. Given the
   magnitude of the flow just above the surface, it is plausible that
   damaging to perhaps severe gusts could accompany the stronger
   showers this evening.

   The severe threat should remain sparse though, so a WW issuance is
   not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 02/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   40429763 42049793 42389785 42709753 43099690 43329625
               43389556 43339484 43119422 42729377 42229345 41719345
               41179368 40669420 40359473 40169524 40089589 40069629
               40089666 40169720 40429763 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH