Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 87

   Mesoscale Discussion 0087
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0311 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast GA into north FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 8...9...

   Valid 152111Z - 152245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8, 9 continues.

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and/or a tornado remain possible
   through the remainder of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The QLCS across southeast GA and north FL has become
   disorganized this afternoon, likely due to outpacing the more robust
   low-level moisture return. However, area VWPs continue to depict
   strong low/midlevel flow and favorable wind profiles for organized
   convection. 

   Across southeast GA, buoyancy will tend to remain quite weak through
   the remainder of the afternoon. However, given the favorable wind
   profile, any uptick in convective intensity could be accompanied by
   a threat for locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado. 

   Farther south, rather strong heating/mixing has occurred across
   northeast FL. While some moistening is still expected to occur prior
   to the arrival of deeper convection (aided by preceding stratiform
   precipitation), strong flow and somewhat steepened low-level lapse
   rates could favor some uptick in damaging-wind potential with time.
   Also, given the breakdown of the earlier more linear structure, one
   or more semi-discrete supercells (such as the one currently over
   Suwannee/Columbia Counties) could persist and pose some
   damaging-wind and tornado threat, especially where richer low-level
   moisture can be maintained. 

   Late this afternoon into the early evening, strong offshore storms
   may begin to approach the FL Gulf Coast north of Tampa Bay, which
   may eventually necessitate expansion of WW 9, depending on
   convective trends as the storms approach.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 02/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29448352 30198293 31048206 31618160 31678117 30468129
               29658141 28968156 28468219 28388268 28568346 29448352 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN