Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 82

   Mesoscale Discussion 0082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...far southeast Louisiana and
   far southwest Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...

   Valid 150715Z - 150915Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts and brief embedded
   circulations is expected to continue across portions of the lower
   Mississippi River Valley and into far southwest Alabama over the
   next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS continues to progress eastward
   across the lower MS River Valley per regional radar mosaics. KDGX
   imagery has sampled at least two tornadic debris signatures within
   the past hour on the northern flank of a bowing segment of the line
   where 0-1 km SRH is on the order of 400 m2/s2 per KDGX VWP
   observations. However, this section of the line is moving into a
   drier, less buoyant airmass, and lightning activity has been
   decreasing within the past 20-30 minutes. While brief circulations
   will remain possible in the near-term (next hour or so), a gradual
   weakening of the line is anticipated roughly along and north of
   Highway 84 in southern MS/southwest AL. 

   Further south, more backed southerly winds imply slightly weaker
   low-level shear, but a recent 06 UTC sounding from LIX sampled
   around 280 m2/s2 effective SRH within a sufficiently buoyant air
   mass preceding the line. This environment will continue to support
   organized convection with the potential for strong/severe wind gusts
   and embedded mesovortices - especially where more meridional
   segments can become established within the line. Coastal surface
   observations show mid-60 dewpoints spreading as far east as the
   MS/AL border, suggesting that the downstream environment is
   favorable for maintaining the QLCS for several more hours along and
   just north of the coastline.

   ..Moore.. 02/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29339104 29839059 30968982 31338968 31838979 32168995
               32378989 32528970 32548925 32448876 32228846 31958832
               31708825 31168816 30818815 30428824 30308846 30258872
               30138887 29928912 29648940 29298980 29139007 29069045
               29049069 29159104 29339104 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH