Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 78

   Mesoscale Discussion 0078
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0602 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

   Areas affected...Much of Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 150002Z - 150200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue spreading eastward across
   Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi tonight. The primary concern
   will be a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A downstream
   tornado watch will be issued in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...An increasingly organized north/south-oriented squall
   line is tracking eastward along a surface cold front at around 30 kt
   in far eastern TX. Damaging gusts have been a concern with this
   activity -- given the primarily linear mode, though transient
   circulations have also posed a risk of brief tornadoes.

   Ahead of the line, the SHV and POE VWPs already show a large
   clockwise-curved hodograph (upwards of 300-350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). As
   a robust midlevel trough continues eastward, this wind profile will
   be maintained over the warm sector, with additional strengthening of
   the low-level jet possible. While buoyancy will remain somewhat
   limited with eastward extent, the favorable wind profile,
   strengthening low-level mass response, and moist pre-convective air
   mass will continue to favor an organized line with embedded
   mesovorticies and supercell structures. As a result, damaging wind
   gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary concerns (and a strong
   tornado cannot be ruled out). A downstream tornado watch will be
   issued in the next hour or so.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 02/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30669359 32039315 32709283 32959245 32969193 32909114
               32709055 32379018 31879015 31079025 29949062 29619100
               29449215 29539292 29689332 29959364 30669359 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH