Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 70

   Mesoscale Discussion 0070
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0836 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

   Areas affected...parts of eastern West Virginia and adjacent
   portions of western Maryland/Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 070236Z - 070630Z

   SUMMARY...A period of moderate to heavy snow (at rates occasionally
   up to 1+ inches per hour) and strengthening surface gusts to 30-40+
   kt may develop by Midnight to 1 AM EST, accompanied by considerable
   blowing and drifting of snow and occasionally sharply reduced
   visibilities.

   DISCUSSION...Mostly light to moderate snow overspreading the upper
   Ohio Valley toward the western Allegheny Plateau is being supported
   by forcing for ascent downstream of a vigorous short wave trough of
   Arctic origins, which is forecast to continue digging across and
   south-southeast of the lower Great Lakes region late this evening. 
   This is accompanied by a reinforcing cold front, which Rapid Refresh
   indicates will begin overspreading the western slopes of the
   Alleghenies during the 04-07Z time frame.  

   As this occurs, low-level flow is likely to veer to an increasing
   northwesterly upslope component across the higher terrain,
   contributing to strengthening upward vertical motion.  Forecast
   soundings indicate that this lift, coupled with low-level cold
   advection, will contribute to saturating profiles with steepening
   lapse rates.  It appears that this may become supportive of the
   development of very weak CAPE through a layer between 850-700 mb, as
   temperatures within this layer cool to around and below -15 C.   

   Despite rather low precipitable water content falling below .20
   inches, and the low residence height (higher pressure) of the
   dendritic growth zone, the strong orographically enhanced low-level
   lift and convective component may compensate, and support a period
   of moderate to occasionally heavy snow rates on the order of .5-1+
   inches per hour.  This is also likely to coincide with downward
   mixing of strengthening low-level wind fields which may support
   30-40 kt surface gusts, contributing to considerable drifting and
   occasional sharply reduced visibilities.

   ..Kerr.. 02/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   40027941 39447926 38717968 38158040 38448069 38578056
               39128016 39627996 40027941