Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 68

   Mesoscale Discussion 0068
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

   Areas affected...parts of eastern North Carolina and adjacent
   southeastern Virginia

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 311840Z - 312245Z

   SUMMARY...A period of sustained moderate to heavy snow rates
   approaching and occasionally exceeding 1 inch per hour appears to be
   developing and likely to continue through around 6-7 PM EST.

   DISCUSSION...Longer term radar loops indicate increasing
   precipitation rates within a zone of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric
   warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, extending from just inland
   of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal areas
   east-northeastward offshore.  Across and inland of the coast,
   thermodynamic profiles are largely sub-freezing, with Rapid Refresh
   forecast soundings indicating modest precipitable water around .4 to
   .5 inches along this corridor.  

   These same soundings suggest lift becoming maximized within
   temperatures most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth
   (roughly in the 700-600 mb layer) through 21-00Z, and becoming
   focused near the Virginia/North Carolina border, near but perhaps
   remaining just south of the Norfolk/Virginia Beach vicinity, before
   stronger forcing tends to shift east of coastal areas this evening. 
   It appears that this probably will be accompanied by a sustained
   period of moderate to heavy snow rates approaching and occasionally
   exceeding 1 inch per hour.

   ..Kerr.. 01/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36347730 37167535 35607528 34937712 35637749 36347730