Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 67

   Mesoscale Discussion 0067
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0942 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

   Areas affected...Piedmont of Upstate South Carolina into North
   Carolina

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 311542Z - 311945Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snow rates around or in excess of 1 inch per
   hour may become increasingly common across the Carolina Piedmont
   vicinity through 1-4 PM EST.

   DISCUSSION...To this point, it appears that peak hourly snow rates
   within an area of snow spreading across and to the lee of the
   southern Appalachians have remained relatively modest.  Precipitable
   water across the Piedmont is generally around or below .35 inches,
   with lower values to the west/northwest.  Saturating temperature
   profiles are well below freezing, but temperatures conducive to
   dendritic ice crystal growth appear initially centered around 700
   mb, somewhat low and perhaps not most optimal for larger dendritic
   ice crystal growth and aggregation.

   However, latest model output suggests that the deep, digging
   upstream short wave trough/elongated cyclonic circulation will
   gradually take on a more neutral orientation while pivoting across
   and southwest of the southern Appalachians through 18-21Z. 
   Increasingly difluent and divergent mid/upper flow to the northeast
   of this feature is forecast to contribute to a period of
   strengthening upward vertical motion across the Carolina Piedmont. 
   This may be enhanced by a band of strengthening frontogenetic
   forcing in the 800-700 mb layer, where forecast soundings indicate
   cooling profiles will contribute to further lowering, but deepening,
   of the dendritic growth zone.  As this occurs, high resolution model
   output, among other guidance, suggests increasing potential for
   hourly snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, which may persist,
   at least on an off, through much of the afternoon.

   ..Kerr.. 01/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35548200 36768021 35767929 34778073 34438187 35548200