Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 61

   Mesoscale Discussion 0061
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Virginia...Eastern West
   Virginia...Southern Pennsylvania...Maryland...Delaware...and New
   Jersey into Long Island.

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 252002Z - 260000Z

   SUMMARY...Sleet continues this afternoon. A brief period of freezing
   rain is possible by early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate sleet continues from northern Virginia/eastern
   West Virginia to Long Island. As expected, the sleet/snow line has
   advanced north with sleet now reported in New York City and Long
   Island. From this area and to the southwest, an expansive area of
   sleet continues.

   While some guidance precipitation algorithms (such as the HRRR)
   indicate there may be some freezing rain and ice accretion later
   this afternoon, confidence in additional icing is low. Forecast
   soundings where the freezing rain is depicted still show boundary
   layer temperatures of -10C. Despite it being relatively shallow, it
   may remain sufficient for refreezing to sleet. By the time the
   profiles look more supportive for freezing rain, precipitation is
   coming to an end. Therefore, some pockets of additional icing of 0.1
   to 0.2" are possible, but the majority of the precipitation this
   afternoon and into the early evening will likely fall as sleet. 

   In the wake of the primary precipitation shield, forecast soundings
   show residual low-level moisture which could result in some freezing
   drizzle later this evening.

   ..Bentley.. 01/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39658006 40167843 40397649 40907442 40927382 40947287
               40627298 40447382 40067397 39647410 39147450 38497539
               38197695 38027847 38157974 38588031 39658006