Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 3

   Mesoscale Discussion 0003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of central NE

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 021834Z - 022230Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain may continue through the afternoon, and may
   occasionally mix with sleet. Modest ice accretion is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation has gradually increased in coverage
   through the morning across western/central NE, in association with
   midlevel shortwave trough moving east-southeastward across the
   region. Initial dryness in the 850-700 mb layer (as observed in the
   18Z OAX sounding) has likely limited precipitation amounts to some
   extent, but a modest increase in rates is possible into mid
   afternoon as saturation occurs and precipitation continues. The
   surface freezing line is currently oriented north-south across
   west-central NE, and is expected to make only slow eastward progress
   through the afternoon, as ongoing precipitation and low-level
   cold/dry advection help to maintain subfreezing conditions farther
   east. 

   The bulk of the afternoon precipitation will fall where surface
   temperatures will remain below freezing. Some sleet will be possible
   within the colder environment across north-central/northeast NE, but
   short-term guidance continues to indicate primarily freezing rain
   across central NE, where a shallower subfreezing layer will be in
   place. Precipitation will generally remain rather light, but 3-hour
   rates may approach or exceed 0.05", with modest ice accretion
   possible.

   ..Dean.. 01/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42599956 42539834 41849752 41329706 40939707 40739767
               40719860 40919965 41139992 41439999 42160004 42599956