Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2243

   Mesoscale Discussion 2243
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0910 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

   Areas affected...western/northern Kentucky and adjacent portions of
   the Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 020310Z - 020915Z

   SUMMARY...A narrow developing corridor of heavy snow rates around or
   in excess of 1 inch per hour appears possible, spreading across
   western through northern Kentucky between Midnight-4 AM EST (11 PM-3
   AM CST).

   DISCUSSION...Multiple speed maxima are embedded within a broad belt
   of strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow now overspreading the
   southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard.  Around 500 mb, the
   strongest of these is nosing east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau
   through the lower Ohio Valley, accompanied by a focused area of
   increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow which is forecast to
   overspread much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley
   late this evening into the overnight hours.  

   It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent will be aided by
   lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which Rapid Refresh forecast
   soundings indicate will contribute to a period of strong lift
   maximizing in mid-levels, within a corridor near the Ohio River. 
   This is forecast to include a layer near/below 500 mb, where
   saturating profiles with temperatures around -15 C will be most
   conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.  

   Although lower-level temperatures across portions of western through
   northern Kentucky are fluctuating a bit, from just above to below
   freezing, cold advection to the northwest of a developing frontal
   wave is expected to support snow or a transition to snow as heavier
   precipitation commences.  As precipitable water content increases to
   0.6 to 0.7 + inches along the frontal zone, guidance suggests at
   least a couple hour period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2
   inches per hour is possible, developing near or to the west/north of
   Hopkinsville and Bowling Green before spreading toward areas
   around/north/northeast of Lexington between 05-09Z.

   ..Kerr.. 12/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   39068358 38618257 37878387 37028611 36468814 36448918
               37308815 38238585 39068358