Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2242

   Mesoscale Discussion 2242
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast OK...western/central AR...far southwest
   MO

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 011237Z - 011700Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain may increase across parts of central
   Arkansas this morning, while light mixed precipitation will continue
   to spread from northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far
   southwest Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...Mixed precipitation (mainly in the form of shallow
   convective showers) has been spreading east-northeastward across
   central/eastern OK this morning. The 00Z OUN, 06Z LMN, and 12Z FWD
   soundings, along with recent objective mesoanalyses, suggest that a
   temperature inversion above 700 mb is limiting the depth of the
   convective showers, while dryness below 800 mb initially limited
   precipitation rates. However, the regenerative nature of this
   precipitation has resulted in evaporative moistening and cooling of
   the column, allowing for at least light accumulations of
   precipitation at the ground. Some icing has been noted in the OKC
   area, and light ice accretion and/or sleet accumulation may spread
   east-northeastward from northeast OK into northwest AR and far
   southwest MO. Some snow may mix with the precipitation in this area,
   though with the primary ascent and saturation occurring generally
   below the dendritic growth zone, a tendency toward sleet or freezing
   rain may persist in these areas as well. 

   Farther south, stronger buoyancy (as observed in the 12Z FWD
   sounding with MUCAPE above 100 J/kg) may support somewhat heavier
   precipitation rates from southwest into central AR later this
   morning, within a persistent low-level warm-advection regime. While
   low-level temperatures are more marginal compared to areas farther
   north, evaporative cooling and relatively dry/cold surface
   trajectories from the northeast may allow for some ice accretion,
   especially on elevated surfaces. A transition to primarily rain may
   occur from southwest to northeast by late morning, due to continued
   warm advection and muted diurnal heating.

   ..Dean.. 12/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35399566 35989597 36629598 36859458 36509267 35449188
               34449201 33789247 33749316 34059431 34529443 35189452
               35399566