Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2228

   Mesoscale Discussion 2228
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central MS into west-central/northwest AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 640...

   Valid 250942Z - 251115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 640 continues.

   SUMMARY...A localized wind-damage and tornado threat will continue
   through early morning.

   DISCUSSION...An earlier organized line segment has taken on a more
   southwest to northeast orientation across parts of central MS,
   parallel to the outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone that continues to
   sag southeastward. A supercell has developed southeast of this line
   segment and baroclinic zone, and may pose at least a short-term
   tornado threat, given the presence of modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg) and favorable low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of greater
   than 300 m2/s2) and moisture. Otherwise, the larger-scale QLCS may
   pose a threat for locally damaging wind and a line-embedded tornado
   as it moves eastward. 

   Farther north, a north-south oriented line segment has recently
   developed across far northwest AL, along the northeast periphery the
   larger storm cluster. While this line segment is currently moving
   through an environment with scant surface-based buoyancy, some
   increase in MLCAPE is possible with time as seasonably rich moisture
   continues to stream northward. With strong low/midlevel flow in
   place, this line segment could pose a threat for locally
   strong/damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado along the
   southern portion of the line as it impinges upon increasingly
   prevalent mid 60s F dewpoints. 

   While the remaining severe threat may tend to remain somewhat
   isolated, trends will continue to be monitored regarding the need
   for downstream watch issuance into parts of AL.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 11/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32428715 32068831 31838978 32189016 32668936 33408801
               34168771 34238738 34368663 33668661 32638695 32428715 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH