Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2219

   Mesoscale Discussion 2219
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin and the Edwards
   Plateau

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...

   Valid 232330Z - 240130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms remain probable in the coming
   hours across portions of the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau where the
   convective environment remains very favorable for organized
   convection.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KMAF shows a broken line of
   thunderstorms between the I-20 and I-10 corridors west of the San
   Angelo, TX region. While most cells remain fairly weak, a leading
   supercell has shown periodic intensification and a persistent,
   albeit weak, mid-level mesocyclone. Despite the meager intensity
   thus far, these cells are beginning to move into the axis of better
   low-level moisture where MLCAPE is regionally maximized (between
   1000-1500 J/kg). Regional VWPs continue to sample elongated
   hodographs featuring 0-6 km BWD values on the order of 50-60 knots.
   As such, the regionally best convective environment remains
   immediately downstream of ongoing cells, which may support an uptick
   in convective intensity in the coming hours. Additionally, new
   updraft development is noted in IR imagery on the southwestern flank
   of the broken band, hinting that an increase in thunderstorm
   coverage is probable. Recent CAM solutions support this idea and
   suggest thunderstorm coverage may be maximized in the coming hours.

   ..Moore.. 11/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29870237 30050267 30310288 30630303 30900301 31170284
               32090178 32290156 32370112 32340062 32240020 31979993
               31499984 31119989 30850004 30200066 29930102 29750137
               29730168 29760203 29870237 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN