Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2214

   Mesoscale Discussion 2214
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

   Areas affected...Southern TX Panhandle/TX South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202047Z - 202315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some stronger gusts and isolated hail are possible across
   the southern TX Panhandle/TX South Plains this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown a clearing trend
   across much of southwest TX over the last few hours, with some
   clearing now noted across the South Plains. This clearing is
   occurring just ahead of a line of deeper convective cores (and
   sporadic lightning) moving quickly northeastward across the region.
   This line has developing along the leading edge of stronger forcing
   for ascent attendant to a shortwave trough pivoting across the
   southern High Plains. The clearing and subsequent heating/mixing of
   the boundary layer resulted in a reduction in the overall buoyancy,
   with updraft strength remaining muted thus far. A similar scenario
   may unfold farther north across the southern TX Panhandle, although
   the greater low-level moisture will eastward/southeastward extent
   should allow for some modest buoyancy to remain. As such, the
   general expectation is for updraft strength to gradually increase
   within this line as it moves into this greater low-level moisture
   and buoyancy over the southeast TX Panhandle/far northwest TX
   vicinity. This could result in a few stronger gusts as well as
   isolated hail. Currently, severe coverage is expected to remain low
   enough to preclude watch issuance, but convective trends will be
   monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 11/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33990244 34710220 35040099 34680022 33620013 33090080
               33110185 33990244 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN