Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2208

   Mesoscale Discussion 2208
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri...western
   Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 182056Z - 182300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms, including a few
   supercells are possible late this afternoon into this evening.
   Should stronger storms develop and maintain, hail, and perhaps a
   tornado or two are possible.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2100 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed
   several bands of gradually deepening cumulus across portions of
   southern MO and far northern AR. Developing along a subtle
   confluence axis near a surface low positioned at the junction of the
   MS/OH rivers, weak low-level convergence near the low and increasing
   ascent ahead of a mid-level trough should continue to support
   destabilization and weakening of remaining inhibition this
   afternoon. Continued heating amid increasing boundary-layer moisture
   (dewpoints near 60 F) is supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE,
   sufficient for strong updrafts. A 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level jet
   overspreading the northern portions of the warm sector will also aid
   in enlarging low and mid-level hodographs for organized storms,
   including a few supercells.

   With sufficient buoyancy and vertical shear for supercells, a
   conditional severe risk is apparent late this afternoon. Some CAM
   guidance shows a band of broken cells spreading east/southeastward
   across the MO Boot Heal into northeast AR and western TN/KY vicinity
   through this evening. With the aforementioned environment conducive
   for supercells, hail would be possible given stronger rotating
   updrafts and 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The threat for a
   tornado or two is less certain, but could be locally favored near
   the warm front where the strongest low-level shear (ESRH 100-200
   m2/s2) and moisture advection are expected tonight.

   The primary uncertainty this afternoon and evening remains the
   intensity and longevity of any surface/near-surface based storms
   able to develop. With large-scale forcing passing north of the
   returning warm sector, convective coverage may be somewhat sparse or
   delayed until the low-level jet strengthens isentropic ascent later
   this evening. Given this uncertainty, it is unclear if a WW is
   needed, though the environment could support some severe threat into
   tonight. Conditions will continue to be monitored closely should WW
   issuance be needed.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37008736 37798835 38208990 38119081 36969215 36389199
               35848981 35758834 35878773 36218714 37008736 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN