Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2200

   Mesoscale Discussion 2200
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northeast Georgia...northern and
   central South Carolina into far southern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082011Z - 082215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along a
   broad frontal zone from northern GA into the Carolinas this
   afternoon/evening. Increasingly strong vertical shear could support
   a few supercells with damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two. A
   WW is possible though very uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2005 UTC, afternoon satellite and radar imagery
   showed a few showers and initial thunderstorms slowly developing
   near the broad frontal zone across northern GA and far western SC.
   South of the front, a moist and fairly warm air mass was supporting
   moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear profiles favorable for some
   storm organization. While so far, development has been slow, owing
   to modest mid-level lapse rates and forcing, continued low-level
   convergence ahead of a weak frontal wave should allow for gradual
   storm intensification of this convection over the next few hours.

   With cold temperatures aloft and sufficient CAPE/shear for organized
   storms, a few clusters and perhaps supercells are possible. Hail and
   some damaging gusts would be the most likely threats, especially
   with any stronger rotating storms. Any tornado risk is likely to be
   maximized along an advancing warm front where weak pressure falls
   and backed low-level flow are helping to enhance low-level
   hodographs.

   Farther east, low-level warm air advection near the warm front was
   supporting additional isolated storms over eastern SC. While overall
   forcing for ascent is rather nebulous, buoyant and uncapped profiles
   may continue to support isolated storm development this afternoon
   and evening. Backed low-level flow near the front could allow for
   some storm organization, though confidence in sustained stronger
   storms is low.

   Confidence in the overall convective evolution is low. A conditional
   risk for more intense supercells is apparent given the background
   kinematic fields overlapped with fairly robust moisture/buoyancy for
   November. However, the lack of stronger forcing and slow evolution
   casts some uncertainty on peak intensity. Observational trends will
   be watched closely this afternoon to evaluate the need for a small
   WW should more intense supercells evolve.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 11/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34758378 35108252 35138104 34977972 34627901 33727903
               33307942 33238027 33498097 33588385 33708472 33878456
               34208438 34758378 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN