Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 22

   Mesoscale Discussion 0022
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 142301Z - 150500Z

   SUMMARY...A lake effect snow band will likely support heavy snowfall
   rates in excess of 2 inches/hour across portions of northern Indiana
   through the evening and into the overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...A lake effect snow band has been steadily organizing
   over the past couple of hours across far southwest lower MI and
   northern/northwest IN amid strengthening cold advection on the
   backside of a passing upper disturbance. Surface observations under
   the band report quarter-mile visibility with heavy snowfall, and
   these observations are supported by live web cams in the South Bend,
   IN area that show significant visibility reductions indicative of
   heavy snowfall rates. 

   Recent surface observations and 925 mb analyses show a subtle
   confluence axis established across southeastern Lake Michigan that
   is forecast to persist and shift to the southwest over the next
   several hours. Latest forecast soundings depict 6.5 C/km lapse rates
   and saturated profiles from the surface through roughly 3 km.
   Additional deepening/saturation of this layer possible as ascent
   within the left-exit region of an approaching upper jet (currently
   noted upstream across portions of MN/WI in water-vapor imagery)
   overspreads the region heading into the evening/overnight hours.

   Maintenance of a favorable low to mid-level thermodynamic profile,
   steady low-level confluence, and relatively warm water temperatures
   (approximately 35-40 F per recent analyses) along the southeastern
   shore of Lake MI should all contribute to robust lake effect snow
   band capable of heavy snowfall rates potentially exceeding 2
   inch/hour. Strong winds within the lowest few kilometers, gusting to
   30-40 mph at times, may support periods of blizzard conditions under
   the band.

   ..Moore.. 01/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41638720 41698702 41828675 42008656 42218640 42118627
               41518579 41338576 41208584 41038613 40978632 40908658
               40908680 40918701 40988722 41098723 41638720