Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2199

   Mesoscale Discussion 2199
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0609 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of Middle TN...south-central KY...far
   northern AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 635...

   Valid 080009Z - 080215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 635 continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will propagate
   across the northern half of ww635 over the next several hours, with
   more isolated activity expected across southern portions of the
   watch.

   DISCUSSION...Southern influence of Mid-MS Valley short-wave trough
   appears to be affecting convection across the middle TN Valley early
   this evening. Water-vapor imagery suggests the back edge of
   large-scale support is advancing steadily east and will encourage
   ongoing convection to spread across the remainder of ww635,
   especially the northern half, over the next several hours. Latest
   radar data suggests a few supercells are embedded along a pre
   frontal corridor of convection, but this activity will be
   approaching a less unstable air mass toward the eastern portions of
   the watch. MRMS MESH cores support this weaker buoyancy with most
   updrafts likely generating hail at, or below severe levels. Given
   the shear, damaging winds remain possible, along with some risk for
   an isolated tornado.

   ..Darrow.. 11/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34728839 36748702 36748395 34738541 34728839 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN