Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2195

   Mesoscale Discussion 2195
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

   Areas affected...parts of far southern Texas including the middle
   and lower coastal counties

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012223Z - 020130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some severe, may develop over the next
   several hours and affect much of the middle to lower Texas Coast. A
   few storms may produce large and damaging hail.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an inverted trough from the
   lower Rio Grande Valley into central TX, with significantly cooler
   surface temperatures over central TX compared to far southern areas.
   However, moist easterly low-level winds combined with cooling aloft
   with the upper trough have supported elevated thunderstorms this
   afternoon with minimal severe potential thus far.

   Farther south, conditions appear to be much more favorable for large
   hail, with full heating and a deepening moist boundary layer. The
   primary uncertainty is storm coverage over land.

   The 18Z CRP sounding showed a capping inversion near 800 mb. In
   addition to gradual boundary layer moistening since then, 700 mb
   temperatures have likely cooled as the upper trough digs
   southeastward. Convection is already starting to increase across the
   middle TX Coast, and this trend should continue. Cells may become
   severe before moving offshore, with large hail the primary threat.
   Deep-layer shear appears quite favorable with 50-60 kt effective
   values.

   At least isolated severe may occur later tonight toward the lower
   Rio Grande, as midlevel temperatures continue to cool.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 11/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   25999786 27509860 28139872 29009794 29319646 29139538
               29009522 28269648 27829704 27119734 26589721 25949711
               25789744 25999786 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN