Mesoscale Discussion 2142 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Areas affected...much of northern and western Utah into far east-central Nevada Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111956Z - 112230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage along a cold front after 20-21Z, and potentially over southern areas ahead of the front. Locally severe hail or wind gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating ahead of the cold front from NV into UT, with substantial cumulus over the higher terrain, indicative of the moist air mass. Precipitable water values are approaching 1.00" over parts of the area, as temperatures aloft gradually cool with the upper trough. Thunderstorms are already forming along the front from far northwest UT into eastern ID, where instability is relatively weak. However, MUCAPE values will increase through the late afternoon and evening, with MLCAPE over 750 J/kg expected. Moderate deep-layer shear should support cellular storm mode, especially with any activity that may develop over east-central into southwest UT ahead of the front. Despite a linear forcing mechanism along the front, some of these cells could potentially remain somewhat cellular as well, with hail near severe levels possible. Increasing/aggregating outflows will lead to gusty winds as well. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 41431316 41901246 41771121 40331132 38821173 37421251 37471455 38641463 40151396 41431316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2142
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards
Tags: Center, Discussion, Mesoscale, Prediction, Storm