Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2098

   Mesoscale Discussion 2098
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of Missouri and far southeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181949Z - 182145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity and coverage
   while spreading/developing eastward this afternoon into the evening,
   posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail. It is
   unclear if a watch will be needed, though convective and
   environmental trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Within the base of a vertically stacked cyclone over
   the northern Plains, water-vapor imagery indicates a compact
   shortwave trough and accompanying MCV moving east-northeastward
   across eastern KS. The leading edge of associated midlevel height
   falls/large-scale ascent -- demarcated by a shallow convective band
   moving across eastern KS -- will continue spreading
   east-northeastward across western MO through the afternoon. Here,
   differential heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints along the
   eastern edge of the convective band and related cloud debris will
   promote a gradual increase in thunderstorms (aided by the glancing
   large-scale ascent). 

   Moderate pre-convective surface-based buoyancy and strengthening
   midlevel southwesterlies peripheral to the shortwave trough (around
   30 kt of effective shear) will support loosely organized
   cells/clusters. Initial cellular/discrete storms will pose a risk of
   marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts. However, the
   parallel orientation of the deep-layer flow/shear to the axis of
   low/mid-level forcing may favor localized upscale growth with time,
   leading to primarily a damaging-wind risk. Given the somewhat
   marginal deep-layer flow/shear, it is unclear if a watch will be
   needed, though convective and environmental trends are being
   monitored.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37449483 38149477 39089438 39759375 40099310 40109239
               39819204 38509210 37229247 36749298 36519370 36579413
               36789444 37449483 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN