Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2043

   Mesoscale Discussion 2043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern VA. southern MD...and 
   northern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061727Z - 061930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing
   severe-thunderstorm potential this afternoon. The stronger storms
   will be capable of producing damaging winds and isolated severe
   hail. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is becoming increasingly
   agitated along a prefrontal trough extending from central/eastern VA
   into northern NC, and initial signs of convective initiation are
   evident. Continued diurnal heating/destabilization amid lower 70s
   dewpoints should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
   development over the next few hours. Despite poor midlevel lapse
   rates, the warm/moist PBL will still yield moderate surface-based
   buoyancy, which will favor gradual updraft intensification.
   Additionally, around 35 kt of effective shear may promote loosely
   organized cells/clusters, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts
   and isolated/sporadic marginally severe hail. Current thinking is
   that the severe threat will be too localized/marginal for a watch,
   though trends are being monitored.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36707962 37807819 38887753 39127731 38967663 38577635
               36907696 36157807 35857875 35927934 36217971 36707962 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN