Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1938

   Mesoscale Discussion 1938
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131642Z - 131845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts are possible through this afternoon
   from parts of the Delaware Valley into western New England, capable
   of sporadic tree damage. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Similar to yesterday's setup in the Midwest, convection
   has increased along/ahead of remnant outflows from overnight/morning
   activity. Additional congested CU has developed across the higher
   terrain of the interior Northeast/western New England, as lower
   elevation temperatures have reached the mid 80s to low 90s. Weakness
   in both mid-level lapse rates and low to mid-level winds will limit
   updraft strength and organization. But the increasing number of
   storms combined with the warm airmass downstream should support
   sporadic microbursts capable of producing 45-60 mph gusts. Based on
   latest trends, this may be centered across the Lower Hudson Valley
   and eventually into parts of CT/MA/NH.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 08/13/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42807397 43607350 43837309 43937206 43787134 43417122
               42487165 41387253 40657369 40417407 40507524 40707554
               41657489 42467402 42807397 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH