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| Mesoscale Discussion 1906 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1906 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Kansas to south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090345Z - 090545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage from northwest Kansas into south central Nebraska. A few storms may be locally severe with a risk for hail and wind. DISCUSSION...Southern influence of northern Rockies/Plains upper trough is expected to aid convection within a post-frontal regime into the early-morning hours. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb flow will increase across northern CO into southern NE. While surface-based parcels are likely capped across this region, frontal lift and cooling 700mb temperatures appear favorable for elevated convection. Latest radar data supports this with a gradual increase in storms across northwest KS. This activity may continue to increase as it spreads/develops northeast over the next several hours. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40050187 41139930 40349851 39250036 39020178 40050187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN |
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