Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 19

   Mesoscale Discussion 0019
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0704 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southeastern MS and southwestern through
   central AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

   Valid 101304Z - 101500Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for additional tornadoes, perhaps including a
   strong tornado, and damaging wind gusts will continue at least
   another couple of hours with an organizing cluster of storms
   approaching Montgomery AL and areas to the west and north through
   8-10 AM CST.

   DISCUSSION...Stronger convection along a pre-frontal confluence
   zone, generally aligned with a developing 40-45 kt southwesterly 850
   mb jet axis, has evolved into an organizing east-northeastward
   advancing quasi-linear convective system.  This appears supported by
   southeasterly low-level inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer
   air characterized by CAPE up to 1000 J/kg.  This air mass, including
   surface dew points near 70F, extends in a corridor across the
   Mississippi/Alabama Gulf coasts through central Alabama, between
   Montgomery and Birmingham, and appears likely to maintain strong
   storms at least several more hours.

   The Rapid Refresh suggests that the low-level jet may strengthen
   further while nosing toward the southern Appalachians through
   14-16Z, perhaps including southerly 850 mb flow up to 50 kts as far
   south as the Montgomery AL vicinity.  The most notable convection,
   including a sustained supercell which earlier may have produced a
   tornado, and has now evolved into a bowing structure in radar
   reflectivities with a broadening circulation on its northern end,
   appears to coincide with one low-level speed maximum.  This has
   crossed into Alabama and may continue to pose the most prominent
   potential for additional tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts as it
   approaches areas near and northwest of Montgomery AL through mid
   morning.

   ..Kerr.. 01/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32398783 32998676 32828630 32348649 31928741 31728814
               31888812 32398783 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH