Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1869

   Mesoscale Discussion 1869
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0754 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020054Z - 020230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized risk of severe wind and hail will continue for
   another hour or so across southeastern Colorado.

   DISCUSSION...Two fairly persistent/organized clusters of severe
   storms continue advancing eastward across the southeastern CO Plains
   this evening -- both generally focused along intersecting outflow
   boundaries. Rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) and
   steep deep-layer lapse rates are yielding a corridor of
   weak-moderate surface-based buoyancy, which should continue to
   support the maintenance of these storm clusters for another hour or
   so -- especially given around 30 kt of deep-layer shear (per nearby
   VWP data). While these storms will continue to pose a risk of severe
   wind gusts and isolated large hail in the near-term, the overall
   risk still appears too spatially/temporally limited for a watch (see
   DDC 00Z sounding).

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37600334 38480357 38830351 39290315 39380258 39120210
               38360218 37590224 37130260 37120295 37600334 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN