Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1820

   Mesoscale Discussion 1820
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0502 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

   Areas affected...eastern MT...western ND...and far northwest SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281002Z - 281200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible through
   mid-morning with initial elevated storms across the northern Great
   Plains. Some potential exists for greater than anticipated coverage
   which could warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have been ongoing for the past
   several hours, but one cell has recently intensified near GDV.
   GSL-MPAS runs appear to be favorably handling this activity
   spatially, albeit slower than observed. The general expectation are
   for these storms to persist through daybreak into mid-morning,
   largely eastward in ND along the buoyancy gradient. A belt of
   enhanced mid-level westerlies, as sampled by the GGW VWP, will be
   sufficient for updraft rotation and a primary threat of large hail.
   Weak convection has also recently formed near the MT/ND/SD border
   area. If this activity intensifies as well, a broader cluster might
   emerge which could increase the severe wind threat later this
   morning.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 07/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47440506 47960221 47850115 47140051 46260091 45790163
               45630266 45750410 45960502 46180629 46360694 46730682
               47440506 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN