Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1813

   Mesoscale Discussion 1813
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272154Z - 280030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop over the next 2
   to 3 hours across parts of northern Minnesota. Large hail and wind
   damage will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will
   likely be needed once the exact timing of cell initiation becomes
   clear.

   DISCUSSION...At the surface, a 1008 mb low is currently analyzed
   just to the north of the U.S.-Canadian border in far western
   Ontario. A front is located to the southwest of the low, with a very
   moist airmass in place over much of northern Minnesota ahead of the
   front. Surface heating early this afternoon has contributed strong
   instability across most of this airmass, with the RAP showing MLCAPE
   generally in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. As the front moves
   southeastward across northern Minnesota late this afternoon and
   early this evening, low-level convergence is forecast to increase
   near or ahead of the boundary. This will likely result in convective
   initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
   coverage early this evening, with a severe threat developing. The
   instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear evident on
   regional WSR-88D VWPs, will support an isolated large hail and
   wind-damage threat. As convective coverage increases, the severe
   threat is expected to gradually shift eastward toward the Arrowhead
   of Minnesota.

   ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48289522 48559482 48679423 48609332 48389219 48199143
               47939097 47649096 47419106 46969190 46869312 47099469
               47459526 47959535 48289522 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN