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| Mesoscale Discussion 1783 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025
Areas affected...western/north-central OK into extreme south-central
KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252220Z - 260045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms with localized strong/damaging gusts are possible
into this evening.
DISCUSSION...One storm has developed across north-central OK late
this afternoon, with other cumulus building in the vicinity of a
surface boundary from west-central OK into south-central KS.
Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but strong heating of a moist
environment has resulted in MLCAPE increasing to near above 2500
J/kg, and storm coverage should increase into the early evening.
This region is on the southern periphery of modestly enhanced
midlevel flow associated with an MCV across northern KS. Effective
shear of around 20 kt and steep low-level lapse rates could support
weakly organized storms capable of localized downbursts and strong
outflow winds into this evening.
..Dean/Mosier.. 07/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35189911 36639831 37459766 37459710 37319643 36789609
35539757 34959863 35189911
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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