Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1769

   Mesoscale Discussion 1769
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

   Areas affected...central to eastern IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240546Z - 240715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe gust threat may accompany a
   portion of a QLCS, mainly centered on the US-30/I-80 corridors
   during the next few hours. Expected localized coverage suggests
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance remains unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Some surge within a broader QLCS has occurred within
   the apex of outflow intersections northwest of the DSM Metro Area,
   with measured severe gusts at personal weather stations in Carroll
   County earlier this hour. A swath of 50-65 kt inbound velocities
   around 2500-3000 ft AGL have recently progressed into Greene County.
   Given ample buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and a 40-45 kt
   rear-inflow jet per OAX VWP data, it is plausible that a confined
   swath of strong to embedded severe gusts may persist over the next
   2-3 hours. This is likely to be centered on the US-30/I-80
   corridors, where the portion of the line remains more progressive
   atop preceding outflow from downshear convection.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42259315 42589230 42719178 42689149 42409130 42119149
               41669170 41519291 41499374 41629411 42009402 42079379
               42259315 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH