Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1737

   Mesoscale Discussion 1737
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

   Areas affected...southern Indiana and Ohio...northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201835Z - 202130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms producing locally damaging gusts
   cannot be ruled out later this afternoon from southern Indiana
   across southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV continues to move rapidly eastward across
   northern IN, well north of a stalled front draped across southern
   IL/IN and southwest OH. Meanwhile, a very moist air mass remains
   near this boundary, with heating occurring upstream across the Mid
   MS and OH Valleys.

   While the entire warm sector is unstable, areas near the front exist
   beneath slightly stronger deep-layer mean winds, on the southern
   periphery of the larger scale trough (and MCV) influence.

   Visible imagery show increasing CU fields from southern IN into
   northern and eastern KY, and scattered storms are likely within this
   zone. Locally strong downbursts will be possible, but any more
   substantial wind threat would be conditional on a large cluster of
   storms producing outflow, and tracking east/southeast near the
   boundary. At this time, it appears a watch will not be necessary.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   39608450 39658393 39708357 39688308 39568274 39208236
               38848232 38338246 38068281 37818335 37928396 38148477
               38418645 38568698 38918712 39298693 39478664 39558561
               39608450 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH