Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 17

   Mesoscale Discussion 0017
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

   Areas affected...far eastern Texas across Louisiana and into central
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...

   Valid 100507Z - 100730Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight in and
   close to the watch area. Locally damaging wind and a tornado or two
   cannot be ruled out through Saturday morning.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest LA,
   with a cold front draped across far eastern TX. A warm front extends
   across northern LA and into central MS, with a very moist air mass
   across the warm sector. Lower 70s F dewpoints exist across much of
   southern LA and southeast TX, and this air mass should continue to
   gradually spread north.

   Currently, the strongest cells are along or even behind the cold
   front in TX, although isolated cells also exist along and north of
   the warm front. Recent convective trends suggest the activity
   approaching the Sabine Valley may become a bit better organized over
   the next few hours as cooling aloft gradually shifts east. In
   addition, southerly low-level winds ahead of this line and secondary
   pressure fall time after 09Z may yield a increased chance of
   isolated supercells across LA/MS well ahead of the cold front. Any
   isolated cells will have tornado potential as 0-1 SRH remains in
   excess of 100 to 150 m2/s2.

   ..Jewell.. 01/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30958882 30419160 29909522 30069531 30409512 31869384
               32249357 32719062 32598932 32088841 31238843 30958882 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN