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| Mesoscale Discussion 1652 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Areas affected...parts of southeastern Kansas...northeastern
Oklahoma...southwest through east central Missouri into central
Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 120359Z - 120600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Stronger thunderstorm development has begun to weaken. As
this continues, peak wind gusts along the associated gust front are
likely to follow suit.
DISCUSSION...Notable surface pressure rises (up to 2-4+ mb 2-hourly
in 03Z surface observations), associated with strengthening
convective cold pools, have supported a period of locally strong to
severe northwesterly surface gusts and southeastward propagation of
stronger convection, in the presence of otherwise modest
southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. However, increasing inhibition
for seasonably moist, potentially unstable parcels within the
southeasterly low-level updraft inflow has begun to contribute to
substantive weakening of convection. As this continues over the
next few hours, the risk for localized damaging wind gusts is
expected to continue to wane.
..Kerr/Gleason.. 07/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37799426 38639284 39479216 40129050 40948943 40678859
39628896 38639118 37469261 36689481 37429627 37799426
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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