Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1599

   Mesoscale Discussion 1599
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493...

   Valid 080045Z - 080215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading southeastward out
   of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 into tonight. A
   downstream/replacement watch will likely be needed for parts of the
   area toward the expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493.

   DISCUSSION...A large cluster of merging thunderstorms is drifting
   slowly southeastward across northeast NE, where several reports of
   severe winds and large hail have occurred. Given the large mass of
   storms and around 30 kt of west-northwesterly steering flow (sampled
   by OAX VWP), this activity will likely continue tracking
   southeastward into tonight. A warm/moist boundary layer and modestly
   steep midlevel lapse rates downstream should support a continued
   risk of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail with southeastward
   extent. This will likely warrant a downstream/replacement watch for
   parts of southeast NE into western IA toward the expiration time of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 (03Z).

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 07/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40829562 40319668 40199808 40459879 41029931 41729933
               42269918 42449881 42659730 42809651 42789583 42429531
               41959515 41289516 40829562 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN