Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1592

   Mesoscale Discussion 1592
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

   Areas affected...northeast Colorado...far southeast
   Wyoming...southwest Nebraska...and northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071923Z - 072130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms expected by mid/late afternoon,
   posing a threat for severe wind/hail. Watch possible.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite show a broad area of terrain
   generated convection over the mountains of central/northern Colorado
   into far southeast Wyoming. Additional convection is now forming
   downstream of this activity, along the lee of the Rockies. Clear
   skies have promoted strong insolation amid a relatively moist
   low-level airmass for the central High Plains, with dew point
   temperatures in the mid/upper 50s F. This is contributing to an
   west-to-east instability gradient, with MLCAPE values approaching
   1500 J/kg in far northeast Colorado. Surface observations also
   indicate a weak upslope flow regime in this region in advance of a
   stalling cold front across the panhandle of Nebraska.

   The aforementioned convection should continue to develop and
   propagate eastward off the high terrain with time. As this occurs,
   storms will encounter greater instability as MLCAPE values are
   forecast to approach 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear is forecast to
   increase throughout the afternoon/evening, approaching 35-45 kt.
   This will help to promote storm organization into
   supercell/multicell modes, with damaging winds and severe hail
   expected. With time, cold pools may promote upscale growth into an
   MCS this evening, transitioning into more of a damaging wind threat.
   Given this potential, the area is being monitored for possible watch
   issuance this afternoon.

   ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41050528 41770466 42130290 41590110 40150044 38890075
               38600147 38570347 38660487 39630541 41050528 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN