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| Mesoscale Discussion 1573 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Black Hills region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488... Valid 060419Z - 060615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated gusts and marginally severe hail possible for the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Long-lived complex of storms that developed over southern MT have spread southeast across the northern Black Hills and appear to be encountering less buoyancy as they spread into the High Plains. Northern plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE extends into extreme southern SD, but nocturnal cooling will eventually force cloud bases to become more elevated in nature, especially where temperatures have lowered into the upper 60s/near 70F. Large-scale support ahead of the MT short-wave trough will continue to encourage this activity to propagate southeast; however, severe wind gusts should become increasingly isolated, and hail may struggle to attain severe levels. At this time a new severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted. ..Darrow.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR... LAT...LON 44260440 44390275 44840139 43240152 43580439 44260440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN |
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