Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1379

   Mesoscale Discussion 1379
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1053 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...446...

   Valid 200353Z - 200600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445, 446
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will focus across portions
   of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.

   DISCUSSION...LLJ is increasing across eastern NE into eastern SD
   where 1km VAD winds are now on the order of 45-55kt. Scattered
   severe thunderstorms are propagating southeast across the eastern
   Dakotas and low-level warm advection should encourage this activity
   to spread into western MN, along/north of the surface boundary
   draped across this region. Hail is likely occurring with the most
   robust updrafts, and latest MRMS data suggests hail in excess of 1
   inch is probable at times. Over the next several hours, LLJ will
   gradually strengthen and shift into southern MN, and should
   encourage continued southeast propagation into the upper MS Valley
   region.

   ..Darrow.. 06/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47469773 45089482 44279607 44729809 46679971 47469773 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN