Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1359

   Mesoscale Discussion 1359
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0839 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest Oklahoma into the southeastern
   Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

   Valid 190139Z - 190315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues
   across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438.

   DISCUSSION...Pulse-severe thunderstorms continue to evolve along
   outflow over southwest OK into the southeastern TX Panhandle --
   focused within confluent surface winds. While the FDR VWP is
   sampling weak (albeit veering) low-level flow, around 30 kt of
   midlevel westerly flow is yielding sufficient deep-layer shear for
   robust pulsating updrafts -- given strong surface-based instability
   (see OUN/FWD 00Z soundings). Instances of large hail and locally
   severe gusts remain possible with this activity, before it becomes
   too undercut by outflow and/or nocturnal inhibition increases.

   ..Weinman.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34519878 34099989 34090054 34180096 34390101 34750066
               35029980 35189926 35299864 35249848 34789851 34519878 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN