Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1285

   Mesoscale Discussion 1285
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

   Areas affected...Southwest Virginia...central/southeast
   Virginia...far northern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141746Z - 141945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and pose some risk of
   damaging winds as they move east off the Blue Ridge. A watch is not
   currently expected given the loosely organized convection.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite continues to show deepening cumulus
   clouds developing within the Blue Ridge. This is in response to a
   weak mid-level trough upstream in the Mid-South. This trend is
   expected to continue given the very moist (low 70s F dewpoints) and
   uncapped airmass. Temperatures are in the mid/upper 80s F in
   southern Virginia and low-level lapse rates will support a few
   stronger/potentially damaging wind gusts with activity as it moves
   eastward. Given the weakening trough to the west, deep-layer shear
   will be modest and storms will only be loosely organized.
   Furthermore, weak mid-level lapse rates, sampled by regional 12Z
   soundings, will also temper storm intensity. Some guidance has
   suggested small-scale clustering may occur. This could lead to a
   locally greater threat for wind damage.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36197950 36038117 36288113 37518059 37908021 38137817
               37987733 37557702 37127692 36727715 36587751 36197950 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH