Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1283

   Mesoscale Discussion 1283
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0733 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

   Areas affected...parts of south central and southeastern
   Kansas...north central and northeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141233Z - 141430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe wind gusts may continue
   with thunderstorm outflow overspreading the central Kansas/Oklahoma
   border vicinity during the next couple of hours.  But this seems
   likely to diminish, as thunderstorms begin to weaken, while
   approaching the Greater Tulsa vicinity toward mid to late morning.

   DISCUSSION...The more intense thunderstorm development is being
   maintained above the stronger leading edge of the consolidated
   convective cold pool, now east and southeast of the Great Bend and
   Medicine Lodge KS vicinities, where 2 hourly surface pressure rises
   as high as 3+ mb have recently been observed.  A swath of rear
   inflow on the order of 40-60+ kt has been evident in radar data,
   mostly in the 2-5 km AGL layer, but measured surface gusts appear to
   have mostly remained below severe limits.

   This has been propagating southeastward around 30 kt, and could
   approach the Tulsa OK vicinity by 15-16Z.  However, due to the
   potential stabilizing impacts of downstream convection on the
   southeasterly updraft inflow, it remains unclear how much longer
   vigorous convective development will be maintained.  As this
   weakens, the risk for strong to severe wind gusts is likely to
   subsequently diminish as well.

   ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36619853 36859924 37009833 37589793 38219782 38219673
               37389545 36589574 36069685 36419779 36619853 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN