Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1146

   Mesoscale Discussion 1146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...far southern
   Illinois...western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061649Z - 061845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat for wind damage and a
   couple of tornadoes is expected through mid afternoon.  A watch may
   become necessary.

   DISCUSSION...A well-developed MCV from morning convection is moving
   generally eastward over southeast MO.  New convection has been
   slowly consolidating in advance of the MCV, and additional storm
   development is likely into the strongly unstable warm sector across
   western KY/northwestern TN.  On the mesoscale, there will be an
   increase in low-midlevel vertical shear and related hodograph
   size/curvature as enhanced flow with the MCV encounters the larger
   buoyancy to its east through the afternoon.  Storm clusters with
   embedded supercells will be possible, with an increase in the
   potential for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes through
   mid-late afternoon.  This area will be monitored closely and a watch
   could become necessary by early-mid afternoon (near or after 19z/2p
   CDT).

   ..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37358756 36618732 35738758 35518852 35598911 35748962
               36159011 36599032 37199017 37578967 37618893 37538808
               37358756 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN