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| Mesoscale Discussion 1128 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southwest Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 369... Valid 052033Z - 052200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 369 continues. SUMMARY...Risk of very large hail continues with an eastward-moving supercell in far southwest KS. Tornado risk may be increasing as well. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak lee cyclone and surface boundary over far southeastern CO, a supercell has evolved over far southwest KS. A long/mostly straight hodograph (around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear) per DDC VWP and moderate surface-based instability should continue to favor large to very large hail and locally severe gusts with this activity. Ahead of this storm, visible satellite imagery still shows billow cloud structures -- indicating antecedent boundary-layer static stability. However, the associated sheltered boundary layer should be accompanied by enhanced low-level SRH, and given the established mesocyclone, the tornado risk may be increasing. ..Weinman.. 06/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC... LAT...LON 37210172 37310194 37700200 37860170 37950094 37840062 37340060 37200091 37210172 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN |
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