Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 11

   Mesoscale Discussion 0011
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Illinois into western Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090150Z - 090245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A narrow, low-topped, broken line of storms may pose an
   isolated threat for damaging gusts and a brief tornado. A WW is
   unlikely, though trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0145 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
   showed low-topped convection within a broad warm advection band was
   slowly intensifying over portions of IL/MO. Cool mid-level
   temperatures from the upper trough deepening over the Midwest have
   steadily overspread a narrow plume of meager surface moisture
   (dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s F). Limited buoyancy (MUCAPE ~ 500
   J/kg) has so far prevented much storm organization or lightning.
   However, continued albeit weak destabilization and moistening could
   allow for a few stronger updrafts to briefly organize given very
   strong kinematic fields. A linear storm mode is most probable, but
   breaks in the line, or semi-discrete cells farther south could
   support some transient supercellular structures. Given this, and
   strong flow through much of the lower troposphere, (1-3km AGL winds
   40-60 kt) isolated damaging gusts may occur. A brief tornado is also
   possible given very large SRH (0-1km 400-600 m2/s2).

   The primary uncertainty for a locally greater severe threat remains
   the meager CAPE and strong surface stability. This is especially
   apparent farther north over northeast IL and northwest IN where
   temperatures remain in the low to mid 50s F. Short-term model
   guidance and observation trends suggest a relatively greater threat
   for strong gusts may materialize over southern portions of IL where
   instability is greater. Still, given the kinematic fields, at least
   isolated severe potential will continue to be monitored over the
   region.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 01/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38509038 39639024 40828917 41368853 41508775 41428697
               41338675 40818655 40238689 39028762 38008862 37908961
               38509038 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH