MD 2175 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 630… FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Areas affected...parts of south central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630...
Valid 250349Z - 250545Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe
limits may accompany thunderstorms overspreading the Greater San
Antonio vicinity by the Midnight-1 AM CDT time frame, with renewed
trailing thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail,
DISCUSSION...A cluster of stronger convection emanating from
Southwest Texas, and on the southern flank of a more extensive
convective system propagating across central Texas, has been
maintaining a forward/ southeastward propagation around 40 kt. As
it progresses into/across the Hill Country through Del Rio vicinity,
it is becoming increasingly displaced to the cool side of cold
convective outflow, with 2-7 mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises
noted in 03Z surface observations. Although convection currently
appears to be undergoing notable weakening, wind gusts approaching
or briefly exceeding severe limits may remain possible as it spreads
across the Greater San Antonio vicinity through 05-06Z.
Otherwise, downstream of the mid-level trough shifting across the
southern Rockies, various model guidance suggests that lift of
moist, potentially unstable air above the cold pool, in the wake of
the lead convection, may continue to support renewed vigorous
thunderstorm development into the overnight hours. Supported by
sizable CAPE and strong cloud-bearing layer shear, stronger cells
may be accompanied by a risk of severe hail.
..Kerr.. 10/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
LAT...LON 29190065 29429963 30089906 30299764 29639705 28929811
28700019 29190065
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH